The recent party switch by Senator Arlen Specter can say many things about the state of the party system in the United States, but among those, it most importantly says that the party system may actually be more flexible instead of consisting of solid, party bases.
Fiorina would point to this event and say that this shift may be due to sorting. Fiorina explains sorting as “those who affiliate with a party today are more likely to affiliate with the ideologically “correct” party than they were in earlier periods,” (61).This is what may actually be causing the partisan polarization he tries to manage in his book. In Fiorina’s diagram on sorting (immediately following p78), before the switch Arlen Specter would be diagramed as a blue marble with an R in the center (a liberal Republican). But after the switch, he would now be “properly sorted”, and become a blue marble with a D in the center. He is now affiliated with the ideologically “correct” party.
Aldrich might see the same event and take a more dismal view on it. In his discussion of the collapse of the Whigs, he stated that members left the party because it was no longer in their interests to remain. Aldrich would contend that Arlen Specter has left the Republican Party because it no longer suits his best interests. In the article for my link post this week, Specter even said the party has changed a lot since he was elected in 1980. The increasingly more conservative ideology of the GOP is no longer attractive to Specter and his re-election hopes. Parties after all are a group of people trying to win elective office and Specter doesn’t see that happening for him in the Republican camp.
It may be difficult, especially with Fiorina’s convincing argument for the increased polarization of elites, to imagine Specter’s switch is actually possible. The GOP is no longer serving Specter’s interests. His hope for re-election was not viable as a Republican. Ignoring re-election hopes, Specter’s ideological beliefs are now more “in tune” with the Democrats because the Republicans are becoming increasing conservative. Yes, there may be increased polarization among elites, but things are necessarily “set in stone” as some think.
Morris P. Fiorina, Samuel J. Abrams, and Jeremy C. Pope Culture War?: The Myth of a Polarized America
John H. Aldrich Why Parties? The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America
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I think you hit the nail on the head with your analysis. Specter is the same, his now old party has moved further to the right, he has now sorted himself to where he belongs. Given his presumed advantage as an incumbent, the Pennsylvania GOP seems to have been willing to risk a sure seat over a matter of principle. More power to them if they wish to hold to their values, but they may regret it down the road.
ReplyDeleteI don't know. I think that if his seat was more secured, he would stay with the GOP. The Republican party did not just take a massive shift to the right over night, or even the last 29 years in his senate career. He did it for job security.
ReplyDeleteEven though we have talked about all semester about how voters seem to align themselves with the party that correctly represents their views and opinions. I agree with Brookshire, it seems to be his switch was more of a political move versus problems with the views of his party. The party did not change over night. Nice comment Brookshire.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that the Republican Party camp no longer is in the viable interests of Arlen Specter. His long range goals would be best supported with the Democrats as he would most likely loose reelection to a campaigning Republican. The Democrats are in the best position to support him now as an incumbent running now as a Democrat. I'm kind of lost at what you meant in your last sentence, that things are set in stone, but otherwise everything you said seemed true. You also did a really good job discussing Fiorina's sorting technique with the marbles.
ReplyDeleteI do consider Specter to be deeply principled and he does tend to vote his conscience, most recently in regard to the stimulus. However, his motives for the switch are pretty clear, as he has publicly stated that the reasons were electoral. Of course, he qualifies this sentiment by lamenting the sharp right turn that he claims the G.O.P. has recently taken. The fact that the G.O.P. is conservative is no mystery, and this is not a sudden phenomenon either. Specter has never really been in step ideologically with Republicans, however, he never expressed any desire to change parties until his chances for reelection were seriously threatened.
ReplyDeleteWould your description of "flexible" parties really apply if the Republicans were too rigid to tolerate Specter?
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